rossmckitrick.comRoss McKitrick - Ross McKitrick Research Archive

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Title:Ross McKitrick - Ross McKitrick Research Archive

Description:Ross McKitrick - Ross McKitrick Research Archive Professor of Economics and CBE Fellow in Sustainable Commerce University of Guelph Home Environmental Economics Textbook Theory of Policy Design Enviro

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Ross McKitrick - Ross McKitrick Research Archive Professor of Economics and CBE Fellow in Sustainable Commerce University of Guelph Home Environmental Economics Textbook Theory of Policy Design Environment and Health Air Pollution and Growth Global Warming Climategate Economics/Climate Policy Emission Trends General Overviews / Misc IPCC Reviews and Critiques Model Testing / Hiatus Paleoclimate/Hockey Stick Submissions/Responses to Gov't Inquiries Temperature-Indexed Tax Taken by Storm Temperature Data Quality Ontario Energy Policy CV, talks, bio, etc. Science and Public Policy Other Research Global Financial Crisis EPEQ Op-Eds Earth Hour Follow @RossMcKitrick NEWEST ITEMS INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN A PREDICTION MARKET FOR CLIMATE OUTCOMES Elmira Aliakbari and I have released a working paper: Aliakbari, Elmira and Ross McKitrick (2017) "Information Aggregation in a Prediction Market for Climate Outcomes." Department of Economics and Finance Discussion Paper 2017-2. This is one of those situations in which a simple and intuitively clear idea takes a great deal of complex math to prove. Suppose a carbon tax is tied to atmospheric temperatures. And suppose that the government auctions off certificates that exempt an emitter from paying the tax on a tonne of emissions for a particular year in the future. In order to price those certificates, the market would have to come up with forecasts of warming. The resulting price path would reveal the market's forecast of climate. What if that forecast path differs from climate model projections? Which one would be better? What this paper shows is that the market forecast would be unbiased, and it would potentially use all available information. The circumstance in which it would definitely use all available information is if there is a strong consensus on climate science. So if you believe the market forecast has ignored important information you would have to believe there is only a weak or non-existent scientific consensus, and vice versa. The paper is now under review. ?FEBRUARY 23, 2017 ? ?CAN FINANCIAL MARKETS PREDICT CLIMATE BETTER THAN CLIMATE MODELS? RECENT ITEMS Newspaper Columns, Commentary and Other PRESENTATION TO THE HARVARD ELECTRICITY POLICY GROUP PANEL ON CARBON PRICING I was invited to participate in a meeting of the HEPG which met in Scottsdale AZ on December 8-9, 2016. My PPT slides are here. The voice-over for slide 6 would be something along the lines of "It might be tempting to think the optimal tax is here but in fact it is [go to slide 7] here." I was one of four panellists in a session on carbon pricing. The others were Gernot Wagner of Harvard, Steven Rose of EPRI and Jerry Taylor of the Niskanen Institute. My presentation provided a summary of some core theoretical concepts of optimal emission pricing and the uses and abuses of Social Cost of Carbon numbers. Much of this material was drawn from my Ctax paper for the Calgary School of Public Policy and also from a short course I just finished teaching for Masters and PhD students at Queen's University. I also fitted in brief summaries of my work on empirical ECS and the social cost of carbon, and the temperature-indexed approach to carbon pricing. Chatham House rules forbid specific attribution of comments, but the event confirmed for me the extent to which even PhD-trained economists who work full time on environmental policy seem unaware of what the economic theory of carbon pricing actually says and how little support it gives for most current proposals. COMMENTS BEFORE SENATE COMMITTEE ON TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS On September 27, 2016 I made a presentation to a Committee of the Canadian Senate which is looking into the procedures and issues surrounding the approvals of new pipelines in Canada. My written submission is here. Apparently my presentation was quite different in character from what the Committee had mostly heard to that point, because I used data and rational arguments to make my points. I will add a video link when it becomes available. OP-EDs PAGE ?I have created a page to store links to my op-eds. It's available under the 'more...' heading in the Navigation bar. HIGH SCHOOL CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE On May 13 2016 I participated in a debate at the University of Toronto (Scarborough Campus) for Toronto-area high school students on the topic of climate change. The resolution was: "Should we be skeptical about the science suggesting that GHG emissions are the primary cause of global climate change?" I was arguing for the Yes position and my opponent was Dr. Tanzina Mohsin, a climate scientist at the University of Toronto. The debate and the Q&A session went for just over an hour. In the video below, Dr. Mohsin and I each spoke for 15 minutes, then gave a short rebuttal to the other, then presented closing arguments. The audio is not great in places but otherwise the video quality is pretty good. Unfortunately no vote was taken so we don't know if the event changed any minds. Tweets by @RossMcKitrick ?Yourenvironment.ca The idea of this site is very simple: to present the complete environmental record of every community across Canada. The site currently shows air emissions by source (back to 1985), air contaminant levels (back to 1974) and monthly average high temperatures (back to 1900) for hundreds of places across the country. Water pollution data are coming this summer. The layout is self-explanatory and it's very easy to use. The data are all from government agencies, but most of it has not hitherto been disseminated in a usable form to the public. All my sources are, or will soon be, linked and the data I use will all be easily-downloadable. So the next time you find yourself in a conversation with someone who (i) is convinced that Canada does nothing to protect the environment, or (ii) thinks winters around here used to be a lot colder/longer/snowier; or it never used to be this warm/cold in April/October/ etc, or (iii) worries/guffaws about the alleged/obvious ecological disaster all around us, and you wonder what is actually going on, look at yourenvironment.ca and find out. Journal Articles and Discussion Papers EMPIRICALLY-CONSTRAINED CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON I have completed a study with Kevin Dayaratna of the Heritage Foundation in Washington DC and David Kreutzer of the EPA, which recomputes standard Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimates using updated empirical estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Dayaratna, Kevin, Ross McKitrick and David Kreutzer (2016) Empirically-Constrained Climate Sensitivity and the Social Cost of Carbon. forthcoming, Climate Change Economics. We applied the 2015 Lewis and Curry ECS distribution to the widely-used DICE and FUND Integrated Assessment Models. Previously the developers of these models (and others) have relied on model-simulated distribution of ECS values, especially from a 2007 paper by Roe and Baker. The Roe-Baker distribution underpins the ...

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